says he thinks these could be stolen or lost medals. >> if the profits are going to charity, okay, but if not, it's disgusting. >> on that happy know, thanks for watching "street signs". >> "closing bell" is coming up next. and we do welcome you into "closing bell." i'm bill griffeth. >> i'm michelle caruso-cabrera at the new york stock exchange, in for maria bartiromo, who is in tomorrow. we are, of course, watching this market very closely, but we are also waiting on a much-anticipated fbi news conference, where it is expected a picture of a person of interest in the boston bombings will be released to the public. we will bring that to you live as it happens. >> watching that very carefully, as you said. also, watching a huge trifecta of earnings. it will be out right after the bell rings. google, microsoft, ibm all with

reports that could either turn this market around or make it go lower than it already is right now, michelle. >> apple going from bad to worse, bill. it could close before $400 today. it would have to do pretty big intraday turnaround in the last hour, if it was going to do that. we are going -- if it were going to reverse that. we'll keep an eye on that and have reports throughout this hour just on exactly where apple closes. >> but in the meantime, what a volatile week we have had. let's just remind everybody of what has happened, just this week. 265-point decline on monday, with all the events that were occurring in boston that day. a comeback day on tuesday, when the market gained 150 points. yesterday, a herky-jerky day with all kinds of back and forth news coming out of boston, do they have a suspect or not. whatever. that day, we finished down 138 points. and now today, the economic data seems to be seeping into the story as well with the jobless claims a little higher than

anticipated. we're down 109 points and a decline of 2.4% for the week so far. bob pisani, how are things shaping up right now? >> a very delicate moment. two days this week, 90% of the volume to the downside on heavy volume. right now we're sitting essentially at the lows of the day. dow just broke down below 100 points, as you can see, sitting there, and the volumes picked up a little bit. heavy volume, downside day, three days, not what you want to see. big marquee names have been mauled this week. but it's not just apple, look at a name like caterpillar. we're at the lowest levels since july on caterpillar. there's the three-month chart. that stock also sitting at the lows for the day. the big story today is going to be ibm. it is one of the reasons the dow is so weak is ibm is down so much. it's at the lows for the day. heavy volume, of course, we'll get earnings after the close. and this is no excuse, there's no pcs here, they got rid of

that business nine years ago. what they want to hear about is how the whole i.t. business is doing ex-pc. remember, 60% of their revenues are services, 20% is software. that's going to be the big story, and of course, we get google and microsoft as well. bill and michelle, back to you. >> bill, thank you very much. let's take a closer look at today's market moves here, michelle. >> in today's "closing bell" exchange, we have bill, joe tan tennis, and also warren myers, cnbc market analyst from dme securities. you saw those back and forth numbers that bill did at the top of the show here. it feels like this market is stuck. is it? >> yeah, i think it is. i think what you're seeing is the economic numbers are weakening, the commodity prices are falling, and usually, the interpretation of that is demand destruction. the economy is getting worse. but the fed is all in. they're at 85 a month. now, maybe some people like jim bulllard are talking about doing

more, but that's not on the fed's table right now. what's on their table is potentially tapering out of the 85 a month when the market wants more. the market is stuck. they want more from the fed, because the economy is weakening, or they want the economy to rebound and nothing's happening and we jump around all over the place. >> warren, what do you think? you've been constructive on this market all through the first quarter. you felt like there was more to go here. but do you feel like the psychology is changing with the volatility that we've seen this week? >> i'll tell you, this week has been a little bit troubling, and i have been pretty bullish up until this point. when you tend to see days like this, where the day after day, up and down bid on the dow, 100-plus point move on any given day, that's a sign that this market is truly struggling. >> are you rethinking your bullish position, at least for the short-term? >> a little bit. i think the thing that's probably sways me the most is the economic data we've been seeing out of the united states in the last week to ten days in particular, maybe the last couple of weeks has been a little bit weaker than the trend going into that. and that's a little troubling to me.

>> all that nervousness in the stock market means that money has been pouring into the bond market. ten-area yields, american interest rates at their lows of the year. can they go even lower? >> michelle, i think they can. when they were above 2% in march, everyone thought that was the start of a new trend. but instead, i think we're just continuing what we've had for the past year. and i think we're going to continue to see lower yields, especially at the long end of the curve. like jim said, if the fed is, and the question isn't necessarily about when they're stopping, but are they going to do more, and at least at a minimum continue what they're doing? and i think you can't fight the fed in here. and i think with the data we've seen recently, which has been softening and not making a lot of progress in economic growth, i think they're still in place. i think ten-year rates could go down to about 145 from here, which is going to put you close to the 135 handle in futures. so i do think that the trend is continuing and this past week has just been a pause within that. >> joe tanias, if that happens,

what happens to stocks? you're looking for bargains right now, aren't you? >> i am laooking for bargains. economic data over the past couple of weeks has been soft and we don't want to sugar coat that, but that's all it is, it's been soft. it's nothing more sinister. we still see economic growth this year to outperform what we saw last year. and in the first quarter, when you saw risk assets rally the amount they've rallied, it's expected you're going to see a bit of a breather. i think what's going on this week is just a lot of digestion. there's also going on around the world and investors are taking this opportunity to take some profits. >> could you see a bigger move lower, though, like 5% to 10%, as has often been discussed? >> i think generally speaking, you should always expect a 5% to 10% pullback. but if i am a long-term investor, i'm looking at where i am today, relative to where i'm going to be at year end, i think there's still some upside here. >> joe, what do you remember to somebody right now? what do you recommend to somebody who's really nervous

because of volatility? >> i think the most important for nervous investors is to hang on to your seats there. but broadly, if i look at global risk, i still favor the u.s. equity markets. i think there's some upside here. i think multiples can still continue to expand. we're still below average. i think earnings, while clearly not growing at double digit pace, are coming in in line with our expectations, which is roughly 5%. and i think cyclicals appear to be a little bit more attractive. >> jim bianco, what would you do with gold? that's the other market this week, and it seems to be stabilizing, but way off the highs of last year. >> gold has got a problem. we tried bailouts when outside money comes into europe from the central bank. that's politically undoable. cyprus, we tried to bail this, we tried to recycle the money in cyprus within the depositors. they bundled that one badly. last week, draghi pointed out, maybe they can sell their gold holdings. it's not about the source of

funds. gold market crashed. i think gold will continue to have a problem as long as it is perceived as source of funds for all bailouts in europe. $1,400 is going to be a tough level to get through, i don't think we're going to see 1,600 or 1,700 for a while. but i don't think we're necessarily going to go down to like 1,000 or something like that. we're just going to stay in this highly volatile range. until we make a resolution on whether or not gold is the source of funds for bailouts in europe. >> if gold isn't a safe haven anymore, doesn't that just add more fuel to treasuries? >> i think it does, because that is where the safe haven is. if you look at yields in japan, down around 67% in a ten-year sector, and in germany, they're below 1.25. so at this point, the safe haven is still u.s. treasuries. and with the fed buying them, it does give you a buyer of last resort. that's where you go, so you can invest in the long end of the curve or express that posture by either doing something like a

flatner trade. again, you're betting on the long end to having lower yields, or conversely, you can do something in calls, with volatility so low, it's about 3.5% in ten years. you can either look at outright bullish posture or some sort of call spread to take advantage of the flight to safety and to u.s. treasuries. >> all right, folks. thank you all for joining us. appreciate your insights on today's market. see you later. >> thank you. >> we expect a crucial news conference from the fbi, where we expect to see a picture of someone they want to question in relation to the boston marathon bombings. all this as president obama went to that city today to help begin the healing. scott cohn has the latest from that city. scott? >> michelle, we are, indeed, about two hours away from this long-awaited news conference. we've had an official news blackout for two days now. so we should find out what the authorities have been working on the last couple of days. some actual official information about that. potentially, a picture or pictures of the people they want

to talk to and what they've learned from all of those video images. and we know that there were cell phone cameras that people have turned in and all the surveillance cameras, like the one in the lord and taylor store, just across the street from the second blast. and also, at least two others that were operated by the boston athletic association at the finish line, and those could be very high-quality images, because those were high-definition cameras. so if they caught something, that could be crucial. also, there are the fragments that they've picked up of the explosive devices, and we know now, according to nbc news sources, that the authorities have been canvassing hobby shops in the area, because of the electronic components that they found in those bombs. nonetheless, though, homeland security secretary janet napolitano testifying on capitol hill today, cautioned us all not to get ahead of ourselves. >> the investigation is proceeding apace, and it just,

you know, this is not an "ncis" episode. sometimes you have to take time to properly, you know, put the chain together to identify the perpetrators. >> reporter: clearly, though, they've made a lot of progress. this city is trying to make a lot of progress in healing itself, healing our city was the theme of all of the may recall events today. president and mrs. obama both here today. the president meeting with volunteers, president and mrs. obama meeting with families of victim -- family of victim krystle campbell and also of people who survived the blast. earlier at the cathedral of the holy cross, an interfaith service that featured clergy from various faiths, as well as cardinal sean o'malley, and politicians as well. the mayor of boston, the governor of massachusetts, and the president, urging this city to, as he said, reclaim its grace.

michelle? >> thank you so much, scott. yes, watch those comments, it was a beautiful, beautiful speech, as he tried the to help the city of boston. thank you. all right, 49 minutes before the "closing bell." the dow jones industrial average is lower by 88 points, 14,529. >> well off the lows. we were down almost 120 when we came on at the top of the hour. coming up, we have much more on another rough day of the markets as we get set for these big earnings. the big three in technology, google, microsoft, and ibm, coming up in a little bit. stay tuned. welcnew york state, where cutting taxes for families and businesses is our business. we've reduced taxes and lowered costs to save businesses more than two billion dollars to grow jobs,

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another day in the red has the major averages on track for their worst week of the year. josh lipton breaks down today's big movers. hey, there, josh. >> a down day for the market, but there were spots of green here. your biggest gainer in the s&p. let's start with that. peabody energy. the coal miner reports a smaller than expected quarterly loss. peabody down some 23% this year, but gaining today. in fact. lucas pike points out other coal names moving higher as well, like arch coal, on that headline of nat gas coming in higher than

expected. verizon also rising today. telephone company reporting a 16% jump in first quarter profit, adds 677,000 contract customers. wireless service margins expand to 50.4%. that's the highest ever. pepsi, another gainer, first quarter earnings fell, but revenue rose more than expected. the cfo telling cnbc that its expanded snack portfolio is doing very well in china. that stock hitting a new all-time high today. as for your laggards, morgan stanley reports a 14% fall in adjusted earnings, bond and trading revenue dropped on an adjusted basis. ebay also in the red, investors unhappy as sales growth slowed, and unhappy with its outlook. and apple, down again below 400 bucks. earnings next week, but apple down nearly 3% right now at 391 bucks. guys, back to you. >> lowest since december of '11. thanks, josh. see you later. ubs chairman axel vaber says he

thinks investors are in a state of uncertainty. maria bartiromo sat down with mr. vaber in this exclusive interview. >> dr. axel, good to have you on the program. thanks so much for joining us once again. >> a pleasure. >> are you seeing a change in terms of investor attitudes towards capital markets, towards equities in particular, given the fact that recently we've seen a little volatility in the market. are you seeing clients change their strategies? >> well, very clearly, clients at the moment are very uncertain. so i would say we're seeing it pretty much a hands-off period in the market again. january, february, was pretty good in that sense, that the market was actually still running well, but march was more difficult for everyone. so clients are, at the moment, still in a high degree of uncertainty. they're sitting on the sidelines. we're seeing a difficult environment. now, people are a lot more positive about the u.s., so they're overweighting the u.s. the s. is still ary, very

strong mark so many overweight that. and we're seeing a lot of regions like europe where investors are pretty much hands-off. so it depends, really, when you ask about how investors behave, where they come from, what region they're located in, and what region they invest in. european investors are, i would say, largely sitting on the sidelines. >> i'm going to come back to you in a moment. but let me ask you first about what's going on in the united states. a big debate about when the federal reserve is going to start winding down the stimulus. is there a downside risk to all of this free money, whether you look at what the fed has been doing with qe or what japan has been doing in terms of the stimulus there, the ecb as well. >> well, yes, it's very clear that central banks have been playing a very dominant role in the economy over the last couple of years. when i was at the imf meetings but still in davos, the talk was the central banks are still the

only game in town. that's not true. central banks can provide liquidity, help build bridges, and that's the a worthwhile function to take, but they cannot solve the deep, underlying structural issues in the economy. >> should, though, the fed be slowing it down at this point? >> well, look, i don't want to give the fed any recommendations, but my job is anymore a policymaker, so i don't have to talk about what should be done. but my expectation on what will be done is, no, they will not wind it down. they will keep monetary policy in place for the remainder of the year, and that will help confidence, that will help the u.s. economy, also, to come back. but it has downside risks. and those downside risks really have to be kept in mind. >> let me ask you more about the financial services sector. i know you've thought a lot about this. we had the too big to fail hearings in washington this week. what are your thoughts in terms of how the banks look in the next couple of years. the big banks, the supermarket banks. what do you think happens?

are they going to be forced to sell assets and separate plain vanilla deposit businesses from investment bank capital markets business? >> the discussion we have with regulators as a global bank involves the u.s. regulators, involves the ssa, involves fin ma in switzerland, and with each of these regulators, we have a very detailed plan on how we can resolve the bank. let me remind you, ubs was a bank that we basically had a near-death moment. if you've gone through that, your plans about how to become more resolvable are a lot more concrete than if this is just an abstract exercise in a war room. >> so are you expecting more divestitures out of this sector as a result of the law? >> in a general sense, yes. i think some of the banks like ubs have already progressed a lot, in that direction. other banks are still trying to sort of, you know, postpone that strategic and structural debate. >> so how does this play out? every analyst report i read, it's not about earnings growth,

it's about all these regulators and what this is going to mean for the major banks. >> sure, and when we embarked, and i was part of the group that was rewriting this global regulation, one thing we always tried to make sure, that is a level playing field. i think over the last two years, the whole regulation has swung somewhat away from trying to ensure a global level playing field, and with global systemic surcharges for all the global banks being the stapame to regulators forcing a lot more on local operations. so i think they need to get that process back to the fsb, back to the g-20, and really have a discussion about the global level of the playing field for regulation, because we're all global banks now. and you cannot avoid a financial crisis of dimension of the last crisis, if you allow pockets for weakness, because regulation doesn't apply to all the constituencies. so i think, basically pushing back on local regulation and making large banks global

environment similar is going to be the key issue. >> should we expect a dividend move from you guys next year? >> weal, we've already said we will move to a dividend policy that is more focused on shareholder's interest in the company once we are at 13%. we expect 13% as a capital ratio some time in 2014 and we expect that our dividend policy and our policy for shareholders is shareholders will get a return at least 50% of our operating profits will go to shareholders. so very clearly a commitment to an increased and better dividend policy once we're done with the capital raising. >> that's maria talking with axel vaber. we're in comeback mode right now, michelle. the dow was down 114 points, now with 40 minutes left, down just 80 or thereabouts. >> definitely coming well off the bottom. but have you seen apple today? if you own it, don't lack.

because it's not recovering like the rest of the market. it's still near its session lows, down 12 bucks. now worth less than the lowest priced full-sized ipad. also, disney trying to release one new "star wars" film a year beginning in 2015. however, could that be too much of a good thing, he asked her? >> no, no! >> or will this force disney shares higher? that's what we'll talk about, coming up. ♪

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the technology sector really underperforming the broader market today. seema mody has the details. >> tech earnings have been pretty disappointing thus far, and thus weighing on the nasdaq. an example of that, ebay issuing weak guidance for the second quarter on slowing demand from europe. it's now the worst-performing stock on the topaz dnasdaq 100 . the tone for tech could dramatically change tonight. the tech trifecta getting set to report later on today. and just when the street thought

apple shares hit a floor, shares breaking $400 again. cautious commentary from the likes of bmo capital, weighing on the stock. has the bar now been set so low that apple could potentially beat street expectations when it reports next week, bill, perhaps your next two guests can answer that question? >> thank you, seema mody, in the obviously cavernous nasdaq market site. so is now an opportunity to buy apple or will shares continue to get cored, it says here. let's start talking numbers on the technical side with rich ross and on the fundamental side, it's enis taner with riskreversal.com. rich, you're not impressed with the chart on apple, are you? >> not at all. this is a stunning fall from grace, and the technicals suggest there could be as much as 20% downside from current levels. we look at this daily chart. seven months ago, this was the biggest company in the world, we're now down 45%, mired in a well-defined down trend. we can't even get above the 50-day moving average.

yesterday the floodgates opened. we take out key charts supported at 520, key psychological support at 400. now, let's bring up the weekly. i'll show you how low we go. when you look at that long-term weekly, we see a break below that 200. week moving average at 372 is imminent. wechb been below that since 2009 when the stock was 100. from there, you see measured downside to 317. that's 20% down from current levels. we would avoid, look to buy down that 317 level. >> enis, this apple has been close to cut in half. what do you think? >> i think you're getting close. i don't think i would necessarily step in and be the person who catches the falling knife here. but, we're definitely close in time. and i want to show you, it resembles actually microsoft's fall from grace in 2000. if you go back and compare the five years from '96 to 2001 to apple's current five-year path, it was a huge run-up that's been taken out. i think price determines risk. you're gettinglose to the bottom in apple.

however, it's going to be a value stock going forward. i don't think you're going to see $700 in the history of apple. >> all right. i'm going to throw up a yellow flag with the fundamental guys. >> bill, what really troubles me about this stock are the products in the pipeline. rumor has it, we're talking about digital watches and televisions. what is this, 1977. are they going to re-release pong, enis? i think you have to avoid the stock. that's not going to get it back up to $700. >> i think a lot of that is priced in here, though, rich. i mean, if i goat to $300, half the market cap would be in cash. >> and you would still be up over 200% from the 2009 low. there's still a lot of longs out there with profits in this stock. this is a long squeeze from the technical standpoint, and a value trap on the fundamental side. i think you still want to avoid this name. >> all right. he's speechless. we're going to stop right there. there you go. thanks, guys, appreciate your thoughts. it is one of the real conundrums in this market. what is wrong withle app stock,

after that high hit last fall. michelle? >> that comeback you were talking about, bill, continue. the dow is now down only 76 points. the s&p is lower by 11. the nasdaq still hit pretty hard, down 44. >> we say "only," because it was down 113 when we came on the air here. top government officials sounding the alarm of a potential economic armageddon. he's here to tell us exactly what he's been talking about with the muni bond market and what has him so worried. and later, it is only a matter of time before europe's austerity measures make their way to the u.s.? if we don't get our debt under control. number two person at the international monetary fund, david lipton weighs in exclusively on the "closing bell." tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 opportunities are waiting to be found in faraway places. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 markets on the rise. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 companies breaking through. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 endless possibilities. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with schwab, i search the globe for the big movers.

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forget the stock market. our next guest is more concerned that it could be what he has called armageddon for municipalities and their bond holders if and when interest rates start moving north. >> we welcome dan gallagher. he's an s.e.c. commissioner and he's joining us in a cnbc exclusive. good to have you here. >> welcome, sir. >> thanks, michelle and bill. it's great to be here. >> you actually used the afraid

armageddon when people were asked what could happen if interest rates go up in this country. explain. >> that seemed to catch people's attention, didn't it? >> sure did. >> we had a roundtable down here on tuesday in washington, at the s.e.c., to talk about fixed income issues, both municipal and corporate. and in that context, i did use the word, talking about the potential for interest rates to rise and therefore lowering the value of bonds held by retail investors, in particular. and also the related issue or seemingly unrelated, but another potential problem, of what we've seen bankruptcies in certain municipalities across the country and the threat of wiping out the bondholders, too. >> but part of premise is that when the fed starts to pull back on the tremendous liquidity it's been adding to the markets, your feeling is that the interest rates, if they spike, that's what would, in part, cause this armageddon for muni bond holders. do you think that's what's going to happen? >> well, no, i can't say i think

that's what i think is going to happen. i don't think a lot of people believe there will be a spike. that if there's any pullback, it will be gradual. but regardless of whether it's gradual or a spike, what i'm trying to do and what the s.e.c. is trying to do through the roundtable we held tuesday and hopefully upcoming events is to raise the awareness, particularly for retail investors, about the impact of the rise in interest rates, which has to happen inevitably. >> let's translate for the average person, who maybe doesn't understand. it's actually pretty simple. if you have a credit card and you owe a lot of money on it, just like a lot of municipalities, a lot of towns, a lot of cities, a lot of states, they owe a ton of money. and imagine if interest rates start rising. you have a credit card and your interest rates start rising dramatically, suddenly you have to spend a lot more money servicing the debt on that credit card or the debt for your city. meredith whitney has actually been talking about this. she's been predicting a wave of municipal bond defaults for quite some time. she's taken some heat since it hasn't happened. here's what she told us in the fall. >> you've had three defaults so

far, in california, you've seen defaults in rhode island, you've seen almost defaults in michigan and pennsylvania and i think those are setting the precedent for more defaults to come. hopefully, we don't see those. >> so, you just kind of indicated, you're not sure she's going to be vindicated, right, or are you? >> oh, no, i'm certainly not sure. really, what i'm trying to do is to raise awareness about this issue. the municipal securities markets, a lot of peep don't know just how massive they are. $3.7 trillion outstanding. and michelle, get this, 74% retail participation. half of the retail or half of the outstanding municipal security holdings are held directly, not through an asset manager or elsewhere, for retail investors. meaning that their exit strategy could be very expensive and could wipe out all of their returns. >> well, you're doing a good job of raising that awareness. but the question now is, now what?

what should those investors do then, that they are aware of the possible risks? >> investors need to become educated. they need to talk to their financial services provider. they need to access the materials that are out there. finra, in particular, late last year, put out a terrific investor bulletin on duration risk, for fixed income investors. the s.e.c., i hope, soon, will be issuing some investor education materials. but they need to become involved. it doesn't mean that everybody's going to become protected from these risks, but they need to know what they are. >> bill, don't roll your eyes, but i'm going to blame government and taxation here -- >> what a surprise. >> are you not surprised that so many people own muni bonds, because the reason they do is, it helps them avoid taxes. >> michelle, you're exactly right. and in a 0% interest rate environment, people want yields. i just gave you the numbers, the statistics in muni debt, it's in the muni debt area and we have these two risks. we have interest rate risk, which is very real, and we have the risk of these wipeouts in a

bankruptcy proceeding. and folks need to understand it. i'm not trying to get people to run to the exits, i just want them to be educated about this. >> that's what i was going to ask. obviously, you have to be careful, as an s.e.c. official, of, you know, in circumstances like this, but realistically, are you in a nice way saying there are people in the muni bond market that have no business being there right now? >> there are no doubt that there are people in the muni bond area, retail investors, that don't fully appreciate the risks with those products. and it's our duty to ensure that we get that education out there. and to michelle's larger point, there is a macro issue here. right, there is a bubble of sorts developing, as people seek yield, and that is an issue above my may grade. that's something i hope -- >> definitely, ben bernanke and all in congress. but i want to underline something. a lot of people might hold muni bonds and they'll hear you and they'll say, okay, maybe the underlying bond might fall, but if i hold it until the end, i'm

still getting paid. >> fair enough. >> you're warning that that assumption could be very, very wrong if things go badly. >> they would have to go very badly for them to be wiped out as to their principle. for a lot of folks, holding on to maturity probably won't end up being the worst risk, because that's really the risk posed by these bankruptcies. but for folks who have in mind to sell these positions, to get out, to me, they're going to be in the worst instead, because they're going to be paying huge fees to get out that they might not understand, and there might not be the liquidity there if there's a major market force going on. >> mr. gallagher, thank you so much for joining us. appreciate it. >> thanks for having me. >> you got our attention, you're right. >> and you know what it's like, bill, when everybody's trying to go to the exits at the same time, right? >> not a pretty sight. that's for sure. >> they're not exactly heading to the exits at the moment. the dows off the lows, was down 13 113 points, now it's down 76. >> not one, not two, but three

huge earnintech companies are ed to announce earnings after the bell. >> and also after the bell, bb&t chairman and ceo kelly king will tell us whether the fed is forcing banks to hold more capital reserves than at least publicly they are currently required too. stay tuned. it's as simple as this.

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the earnings will be coming in fast and furious right after the close of trading today. >> mandy drury breaks down for us what to expect from that trifecta of google, microsoft, and ibm, mandy. >> it really is a trifecta. three really big tech names we need to watch for and they'll come out after the bell. let me start with microsoft up here. it's coming out with its third quarter results and the decline in pc sales, we've been talking a lot about recently, that's going to be evident in this quarter. and it's also been something that's been battering microsoft's stock. this point is also significant, guys, because it will show the first full quarter of those windows 8 sales. let me take a look at what we're

looking at in terms of the estimates. the estimates have been coming down. the consensus estimate, though, is standing around an eps of 68 cents on revenue of $20.6 billion. that is versus 60 cents last year on revenue of $70.4 billion. but i want to say with regard to microsoft estimates, they're quite wide. there's a very wide range there. i think from as low as 64 all the way up to 80. and they have about a 55% positive upside surprise, so about half of the time they beat. let's take a look at what is happening with google. just like with yahoo! it is really all about online ad revenue here, particularly ad revenue that is being generated from mobile sites, right? we're all going to mobile. expectations here are centering around an eps of $10.69, that is 10% more than last year. revenue, estimates at $14.2 billion, about 75% higher than last year. and ad sales could grow by 20% year on year.

as for the shares, remember those shares hit a record high, $844. everyone was coming out with those price targets of $1,000 and everyone said, oh, that's the end for them, and google has come off over the past month, down to where it is sitting right now at $756. and also guess what, google is planning to open retail stores later on in 2013. i wonder if ron johnson wants a job. let's take a look at ibm. big dow component and has been facing more and more competition in its space lately. analyst estimates call for $3.05 here. that is for eps. that is up about nearly 10% from a year ago. revenue expected to come in around $24.7 billion. a little change from last year. this has, however, beat every quarter for the past four quarters. as for the stock, well, it hasn't been that different from the broader market. rising, as we can see, year-to-date, 8.5% year-to-date. so, you know, as i say, not that different from what the broader market has been doing. we are watching after the bell

for those three. back to you guys. >> yes, we are. thank you, mandy. see you later. heading toward the close, 15 minutes left. look at this, down just 68 points. what do you think? can we go neutral here at the close? >> maybe, we'll see. that's why you've got to stay all the way to the end of the show and watch. >> you're supposed to make the prediction here. >> yes, yes. major arverages are on track fo their worst week of the year. >> and disney trying make "star wars" into an annual summer ritual. >> all right, i'll give it a try. >> no! try not, do or do not. there is no try. >> i love that part. >> they should ask his opinion of whether they should do this. coming up, a look at weather that's a yoda-type disney move by disney or whether disney will experience the dark side of overexposure. [ male announcer ] there are people who find their own path.

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stocks still lower ton day with ten minutes left in this trading session. the s&p is down nearly 3% on the week. >> but bob kaiser from s&p capital iq says his firm is actually raising its year-end target for the index t 1650.

>> wow. >> that's 100 points away. let's get his take. bob kaiser is right on with me along with jeff cox from cnbc.com. guys, good to have you sohis up weekas not rattled you, bob? >> no, not at all. as a matter of fact, if you think about what triggered the sell-off in stocks this week, it was gold. gold affected the market out of left field this week. we're down about $200 from where gold was trading a week ago. >> so? >> it injected volatility in the market. gold was propped up, we believe, for a long time by two things. one was high sovereign credit risk. >> fear that europe was going to default? >> exactly. that deflated all year, really, since the ecb announced open market transactions. and the second thing that pumped gold up for the past few years was quantitative easing one, two, and three. bernanke's latest fed minutes said they could start doing flexible purchases if the economic outlook continues to improve. so the two main fundamental fantastics that were supporting gold has diminished. >> in other words, less qe.

>> less qe and sovereign has gone away. so the collapse in gold is fully justified. >> i've got a question for you, bob, but let me ask jeff. they're raising their targets. you've been cautious on this market anyway, and we have seen something of a change in market psychology, just this week, with this herky-jerky consecutive triple-digit days for the market. >> correct. and i admire bob's optimism for raising his target, but i still have some concerns. break down into a couple things here. look at where the rally has come from, it's come from defensive sectors. we've brought in those health care stocks, 18% higher in such a short period of time. how far can you ride that horse? i think it brings up a good point with the gold, but i think the gold is symptomatic of something else. we are entering -- we are actually in a deflationary period with the market here, and those words are not easy come out of my mouth, because i've been a hawk as far as inflation -- >> deflation, where are prices falling? >> it's not just a matter of prices, when you look at the gold situation, that's a canary in the coal mine.

we had a very sloppy tips auction today and money is coming out of tips funds big-time now. so i think the market is bracing for a deflation. caterpill caterpillar, big deflation indicator, copper, another deflationary indicator. i think you've got some problems there. and you want to talk about the fed and qe, what the minutes said, i was listening to bullard yesterday saying if they can't get inflation up from 1.5%, they might go more aggressive as far as asset purchases go. >> i was going to say, if the fed is easing on easy money, isn't that negative for stocks? >> they're not going to take the punch bowl away, they're just going to replenish it at a slow slower pace, we started the year with a target of 1,600 for the s&p. we got there by the first week in april. we believe the fundamental factors are improving as far as the u.s. economy -- >> what if jeff is right and we have deflation? >> jeff brings up a couple of great proints. the best-performing sectors this year are health care, consumer staples, and utilities.

to date, investors he been buying stock for income, haven't been buying femme for growth. but this week we saw the rate of housing starts get above 1 million units annually for the first time in five years. shows that qe3 is gaining traction. if that trend continues through the balance of the year and we start to see growth, growth will come back in with the stock market. >> i think this market's got to confront a point, it may have to confront a point here with the fed that, what if what the fed is doing really isn't working anymore. if the effectiveness is starting to wane, i think it's a big dilemma for the market, that we may have to start talking about it a little bit more as we go into future days here. >> bob, why now? this is your second revision higher for the s&p for the year, but the market's not acting like it likes the better data on housing, for example. >> well, it's our first revision. we started at the beginning of the year with a 1,600 target, now we're saying 1,650, but the near-term problem for the market

is it's still a low-growth environment, which probably only deserves a 14 multiple. and we were fully priced above a 14 multiple when we were up, knocking on the door of 1,600. so maybe you get a 5% pullback here, to take you back to about, you know, 1510, maximum. that's only a 5% correction. you've still got eight months to go for the rest of the year. >> interesting call from bank of america today, real quickly. they actually think we might see treasury yields come down from where we are now. we're already at 2013 lows. >> we heard that from one of the other analysts. >> thanks, guys. >> thank you, gentleman. >> see you later. >> we'll come back with the closing countdown, right? >> we will. and huge implications for this market as google, microsoft, and ibm are set to report earnings right at the top of the hour. we'll have instant analysis and reaction to that trifecta of big tech results. you're watching cnbc. why? because we are first in business worldwide. come on, nowadays lots of people go by themselves.

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cook what you love, and save your money. joe doesn't know it yet, but he'll work his way up from busser to waiter to chef before opening a restaurant specializing in fish and game from the great northwest. he'll start investing early, he'll find some good people to help guide him, and he'll set money aside from his first day of work to his last, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. welcome back. about 2 1/2 minutes left before the market closes. let's show you how the dow has been doing today. we were down 113 on the lowest point of the day, just as we came on the air at 3:00 eastern time with "closing bell" and we've come off those lows. smartly, we're down 71 points right now. the real focus in the next few minutes will be these earnings from the big three giants, from

the world of technology. google, they're looking for $10.66 on $14.09 billion of revenue. microsoft, they're looking for 68 cents on $20.5 billion, and ibm, they're looking for $3.05 earnings on $24.62 billion. but as you can see, all three, michelle, are to the downside today. >> and this is a pretty crucial session, right? because with this week that has been so volatile, bill, back and forth, i think investors really like to see something definitively good in order to maybe get this market back on track. >> or at least one that they're going to respond to the upside. ben willis from albert freed and company, i know you're a savvy trader and you trade the s&p, but art cashen was saying that it's 14,500 on the dow that they need to close above, or we might have a dicier situation in the markets. do you buy that? what would the number be on the s&p? >> well, i do. and the s&p put on a pretty good performance, if you're looking at the technicals like art tends

to do once in a while, we held 1540. there was a big concern enter day that if we broke 1540, we would collapse pretty significantly. the technicians saying there was a huge vacuum to the downside. we avoided that today. i think that's a pretty good indicator. i think verizon's another great indicator. and quite frankly, ibm is going to be a great indicator, because they're a much better bellwether for the s&p and where the stock market goes after earnings once they report. >> so the three, that's the one you're watching most closely? >> absolutely. >> okay. and, to michelle's point very quickly, this market hasn't reacted all that well when we got, you know, some good economic data out this week. >> take a breath, relax. this is an opportunity for long-term buyers to be in the market. you may be able to get them buying a little cheaper. this is the correction you and i have talked about for well over a month. i've been wrong, quite frankly. but i think we're in that process. i think we can get down to those levels, below 14,500 on the dow. it's not a reason to panic, it's a reason to add to your

portfolio. >> and you do sound calm. thanks, ben, see you later. that is the first hour of the "closing bell." stand by. some very important earnings that could set the tone for tomorrow, coming up next, right now on ohour number two of the "closing bell." welcome to the "closing bell." i'm michelle caruso-cabrera in for maria bartiromo. she's back tomorrow. >> and i'm bill griffeth. stocks coming off their lows of the day. here's how we're finishing this day on wall street. this will be the first day this week, it looks like, that we haven't had a triple-digit move for the dow. but we are finishing lower today, off the lows, down 79 points. the nasdaq, once again, hardest hit, down 1.2%. a dayt apple fell below $400, now at 31.66 on the nasdaq composite, and the s&p down ten-plus points at 1541, and we are just moments away from earnings from the big